To all, we wish a Happy New Year!
And as we head into the new year, a look at the future of LNG in the world.
Critics of LNG projects in BC constantly proclaim that LNG will be displaced by hydrogen and renewable energies, so we should simply scrap our projects.
But that’s wishful thinking. The sweeping energy transformation they demand would take many years, so, realistically, LNG and natural gas will be with us for a long time to come.
As noted by the Alberta government’s Canadian Energy Centre, “Every serious forecast shows gas demand will remain strong for decades.”
For example:
- The International Energy Agency sees demand for LNG and gas as strong through 2050. It projects demand growing to 180.6 trillion cubic feet in 2050, up from 141.2 trillion cubic feet in 2020: http://ow.ly/vRIm50Hj9qH
- The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects a bigger increase, to 186 trillion cubic feet in 2050: http://ow.ly/oK9X50Hj9re
- Market consultants Wood Mackenzie: “Investment opportunities in new LNG supply projects remain robust and Qatar and Russia are already talking about FID on their next development projects. . . . With global LNG demand expected to double over the next 20 years, and with LNG supply from some legacy projects continuing to decline, we anticipate the market will require more than 250 mmtpa (million tonnes per annum) of investments in new LNG supply by 2040.” http://ow.ly/GK8u50Hj9rR
- McKinsey and Company: “Demand is expected to grow 3.4 percent per annum to 2035, with some 100 million metric tons of additional capacity required to meet both demand growth and decline from existing projects. LNG demand growth will slow markedly but will still grow by 0.5 percent from 2035 to 2050, with more than 200 million metric tons of new capacity required by 2050.” http://ow.ly/l5Yl50Hj9th
- Shell (which holds a 40% interest in LNG Canada): “Global LNG demand is expected to reach 700 million tonnes by 2040, according to forecasts, as demand for natural gas continues to grow strongly in Asia and gains further traction in powering hard-to-electrify sectors. As a result, more supply investment will be needed to avoid the estimated supply demand gap in the middle of the current decade.” http://ow.ly/KRnp50Hj9tW
- The Journal of Petroleum Technology: Natural gas/LNG is expected to be the fastest-growing fossil fuel through 2040, satisfying up to a quarter of global energy demand and cementing its position as a transition fuel to a low-carbon future: http://ow.ly/k6un50HhWRa
- Mitsubishi, 15% partner in LNG Canada (and Japan’s largest LNG supplier), sees LNG playing a pivotal role in energy transition: http://ow.ly/VNIN50Heflp
- As well, TC Energy, parent of Coastal GasLink, sees North America natural-gas demand rising 25% by 2030: http://ow.ly/MJgh50H9BYL
The global LNG market was valued at US$7.68 billion in 2020 and it is expected to reach US$15.59 billion by the end of 2027, growing at an annual rate of 10.2%.
Analysts from The Market Reports firm say that driving the market will be rising energy consumption, growing urban population, increasing demand of natural-gas vehicles, accelerating economic growth, and increasing preference of LNG in developing economies.
LNG Canada should start shipping LNG in 2025. And nine big LNG projects are on the table around the world: http://ow.ly/JNH850Hj9yu
World shipping lines are so confident in the future of LNG that they have ordered 55 new LNG carriers. And more than 200 LNG-fuelled freighters, special-cargo ships, and cruise ships are on order.
Indigenous leaders speak out
Indigenous leaders stepped up to call out those anti-pipeline activists who claim to be “supporting” First Nations with protests against the energy projects.
- Chris Sankey, CEO of Blackfish Enterprises and Chair of Blackfish Industries, a heavy construction company (and former elected councillor of the Lax Kw’alaams Nation) was prominent and pointed.
- In the latest news, he and our Alliance chair, Crystal Smith, elected chief councillor of the Haisla nation, spoke in a video created by The North Matters: http://ow.ly/FChs50HiQbc
In it, Sankey spoke of “all the revenue we could make for arts, language and culture, housing, infrastructure, healthcare, education; you name it, we would have all of that paid for. And there’d be no more of putting our hand out, asking the government for money.”
Chief Crystal underlined the goal for her nation and others: “And that is meaningful; that is what we’re working for. We want them to be confident, we want them to be independent, and we want them to be successful and thriving,”
- Earlier, Sankey said it’s devastating to watch illegal protests blocking construction of the Coastal GasLink pipeline, and the activism is holding Indigenous people back. http://ow.ly/621J50HiiJg
- In a guest column in National Post, Sankey wrote: “People are being led to believe we are all against resource development, which is simply not true. Our hardship, our historical trauma and our rights are being used by non-governmental organizations to raise funds for their own purposes.” http://ow.ly/ljQg50HjaRo
- For the Macdonald-Laurier Institute, he argued that “defund” protests won’t affect Coastal GasLink. ‘But they will absolutely make it more difficult for Indigenous nations and entrepreneurs to access capital.’ http://ow.ly/RiSA50HeO2O
- Interviewed by Stirling Faux on CKNW radio, Sankey told how protesters are using Indigenous peoples as political pawns in resource development. The segment starts at 9:41 here: http://ow.ly/ozX950H8M0e
- And in a video interview with Stuart McNish of Conversations that Matter, Sankey said it’s time for activist groups and NGOs to butt out of First Nations’ And time for Indigenous people and companies to work together. Watch here: http://ow.ly/b5h150HjaWz
JP Gladu of the Indigenous Resource Network added: “ By paying attention to the extremists on either side, we are ignoring the vast majority of Canadians and Indigenous peoples who support responsible resource development.” http://ow.ly/R4XY50H8XiO
They were not alone. The Canadian Energy Centre compiled, and shot down, five myths from protesters about the Coastal GasLink pipeline, and why they are damaging Indigenous communities and opportunity: http://ow.ly/8Emr50HhCA1
And Stewart Muir of Resource Works recorded a podcast with Howe Street Radio: How Canada is missing out on billions of dollars from LNG, and how First Nations are tired of protesters claiming to represent them. Listen here: http://ow.ly/SgSi50Hig1z
Coming up January 26
Our next online Outreach session is scheduled as above. We’ll post more info on our social-media channels as we make final arrangements with guest speakers.
And we’ll post the link to register for the event.
- The Alliance is also beginning work on a series of videos about the benefits of LNG projects and associated pipeline development. Have you got a story to tellabout how these have benefited you, or your community, or your company? Can we share it in a little video? Please let us know, by email to outreach@fnlngalliance.com
ALSO IN THE NEWS
- Coastal GasLink posted its final construction update of 2021, and a lookahead to what’s to come in 2022: http://ow.ly/BOON50HetzJ
- CN Railway wins right to privately prosecute people who blocked northern BC track to protest the Coastal GasLink pipeline: http://ly/r9cr50HjX2Y
- LNG-powered BC Ferries vessel is en route to Victoria from Poland: http://ly/Ik4m50HiwV8 And a Victoria shipyard is converting an Alaska freighter to LNG power: http://ow.ly/xU5250HispF
- BC could bypass Alberta as Canada’s top natural-gas supplier by 2028: http://ow.ly/R79y50HaMqP
- Canada’s emissions are dwarfed by ‘super polluter’ global coal projects. Canada can help with LNG exports https://bit.ly/3qeexu4
- From Resource Works: As BC reviews its natural-gas royalty system, Josiah Haynes debunks the first of the top five myths about the gas that could fuel the world: http://ow.ly/O4kv50HhWre
DATES
- Set for Jan. 13, 2pm-3:30pm PST: Our Alliance chair, Crystal Smith, is featured in an online “fireside chat” via the First Nations Public Service Secretariat. Register here: http://ow.ly/hapH50Hjcty
- The draft agenda is online for the BC Natural Resources Forum Jan. 18-20. Speakers include our chair, Chief Crystal Smith, on Jan. 20. More info on the virtual event: http://ow.ly/fEqE50HeLIE Early-bird tickets are available until Jan. 6. Register: http://ow.ly/7C1h50HeLIF
- Registration is open for the two-day hybrid (in-person and online) conference of the First Nations Major Projects Coalition, April 25-26, 2022. Early-bird tickets are available until Jan. 15. You can register here (free for Indigenous communities): ly/5OoP50GKXKA
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