As LNG Canada’s partners look at potential Phase Two expansion, doubling their LNG output, they’d hope to use electrical power for their processes.
And switching Phase One to electricity from BC Hydro (rather than burning some of the natural gas to generate power) is on many a wish-list.
Meanwhile, Woodfibre LNG plans for its compressors and other technologies to be powered by renewable hydroelectricity.
The Haisla Nation’s Cedar LNG project also aims to be powered by renewable electricity from BC Hydro.
And the Nisga’a Nation’s Ksi Lisims LNG project says it will be ‘net-zero ready’ by 2030, also using renewable hydropower from the BC grid.
FortisBC’s Tilbury LNG facility in Delta has used power from BC Hydro since 1971, and now its expansion will take power from a new substation at the Tilbury site, linked to a BC Hydro substation in Ladner.
Now add to all that the booming future power demands as governments at all levels seek to introduce more electric vehicles, electrify more industrial processes, and restrict the use of natural gas to generate electricity, heat buildings, and heat water.
A University of Victoria study reported, for one example. that if BC wants to electrify all road vehicles by 2055, it will need to at least double its power output.
Then to the above add the soaring electricity needs of Artificial Intelligence computer programs, and a growing provincial population.
And, on top of all that, the BC government requires all proposed LNG facilities to have “a credible plan” to be net-zero for greenhouse-gas emissions by 2030, and for other new large industrial facilities by 2050 .
So BC simply needs one heck of a lot more electrical power.
The question is where will all this extra power come from — especially given that, thanks to drought conditions, BC Hydro has been importing more and more power from the US and Alberta.
The bulk of B.C.’s power now comes from hydro-electric dams. But a prolonged drought resulted in two years of below-average precipitation, which reduced BC Hydro’s generating capacity. Compounding the lack of rainfall in the warmer months has been the decreasing snowfall in the colder ones, with historically low snowfalls drastically cutting the water levels of the reservoirs that feed BC Hydro dams.
So Hydro has been forced to resort to imports, bringing in 13,600 gigawatt hours (GWh) of electricity, at a cost of $1.38 billion, over a 12-month period.
But the US and Alberta sources for those imports face their own power crunches. The US, for one, expects demand for electricity will surge almost 16% over the next five years, more than triple the estimate from a year ago. Thus the two sources of BC ‘s imports may have less electricity available for us to import.
True, the Site C dam now has filled its reservoir, and aims to have all six generating units in service by fall 2025.
But the BC-based Energy Futures Institute notes that the imported volume of 13,600 gigawatt hours amounts to “two and half times the amount of power the Site C dam is expected to produce in a year with average water flows.”
If LNG Canada were to switch its Phase One to hydro power, it alone could use 40% of the power produced by Site C, becoming BC Hydro’s third largest customer. And that’s just for Phase One of the LNG-for-export project.
If LNG Canada goes ahead with Phase Two (and if it uses electricity to chill its Phase Two natural gas for liquefaction, as the BC government would hope), then double that number to 80% of the new power from Site C. As of now, though, LNG Canada says it would have to burn natural gas to generate power, at least initially, “because the (BC Hydro) transmission infrastructure just isn’t there.”
All in all, then, BC indeed faces a hefty power crunch.
As noted by the Energy Futures Institute: “BC Hydro forecasts that demand for electricity will increase by at least 15% by 2030, and possibly more. This is being driven by population growth, economic development, and provincial government policies such as the 2030 electric vehicle sales mandate of 90% and restrictions on the use of natural gas for residential and commercial heating.”
Energy commentator Markham Hislop of Energi Media: “By 2050, BC may need to double or triple its . . . power generation as transportation, buildings and industry are all or partially electrified. Current output is generated with 32 hydro dams. Can the province build another 32 or 64 hydro plants in under 30 years? Of course not, so where will all that power come from?”
That’s indeed today’s question: Where will all the new power come from?
Margareta Dovgal of Resource Works adds: “BC’s Clean Energy Act mandates that 93 percent of grid electricity must come from renewable resources — so 93 percent of doubled or tripled supply in power needed would have to come from renewable sources, and maybe some burning of natural gas, rendered clean by purchasing offsets.
“Presumably, some of that power will come from independent power producers, such as solar, wind and run-of-river hydro projects, who can sell their surplus power to BC Hydro, which has 125 such purchase agreements.”
In April this year, BC Hydro launched a call for power, and received 21 proposals from independent power producers throughout B.C., representing more than 9,000 GWh/y, enough to power approximately 800,000 homes.
Now Hydro has accepted nine of the proposals, all wind projects, and all with Indigenous partners, which will provide nearly 5,000 gigawatt hours per year of electricity, enough to power 500,000 new homes. The nine will boost Hydro’s current power supply by 8% — but the nine projects are not scheduled for commercial operations until 2030-2031 while Hydro talks of needing at least 15% more power by 2030.
Hydro adds: “Eight of the nine successful energy projects will have 51% (Indigenous) equity ownership. This represents $2.5 billion to $3 billion of ownership by First Nations in new renewable-energy projects in the province.”
Meanwhile, Resource Works argues that BC should revisit nuclear energy to address BC Hydro’s growing shortages.
Ontario, Alberta, Saskatchewan and Nova Scotia all have announced plans to get into, or expand, nuclear power capacity, which already provides the majority of the province’s electricity. But BC has prohibited nuclear energy since passing the Clean Energy Act of 2010, which bans the building of reactors or mining uranium.
BC Hydro says it expects its next call for more power supplies will be in 2026, with successive calls to be issued approximately every two years.
If Hydro thus comes up with enough new power to meet all the wild future demand, it will then face the cost of transmitting the power to where it’s needed.
So BC Hydro’s latest 10-year capital plan provides for nearly $36 billion to maintain and expand BC’s electricity grid.
To conclude, Energy Futures chair Barry Penner (a former BC cabinet minister) says: “BC needs to recalibrate our electrification targets, as it takes time to significantly increase made-in-BC electricity supply. Otherwise, British Columbians may end up paying the price.”\