Our newsletter: 11 May 2023
LNG exports will be big for BC
The Business Council of BC sees new LNG exports giving a healthy boost to BC’s export economy.
In a new report, the council says: “Our projection foresees LNG adding $4.4 billion in energy exports, but some projections suggest the figure is likely to exceed $6 billion.”
And it adds: “Under any plausible assumptions about energy prices and LNG exports (and growth in other sectors), the energy sector will provide the largest lift to B.C. exports and contribute more to advancing prosperity than any other sector/sub-sector in the 2020s.”
Authors Ken Peacock and Jock Finlayson also note this: ”The review used very conservative projections for the energy sub-sector. Under a more plausible scenario reflecting (i) more realistic estimates of LNG Canada’s shipments and including Woodfibre LNG exports and (ii) factoring in expanded pipeline capacity and stronger growth in other energy exports, the energy sub-sector’s total exports expand by $14.3 billion over the decade.
“Under this scenario the energy sub-sector will account for more than 30% of the total increase in provincial exports over the 2017-2027 period.”
The council adds: “We initially developed conservative estimates because (i) of the high degree of uncertainty in the projections and (ii) given the uncertainty, we did not want to overstate the value of LNG exports.
“We recently asked Chat GPT what the value of a typical LNG shipment currently is and how many shipments the LNG Canada facility in Kitimat, B.C. will make when
production begins. The response: a typical LNG shipment of 160,000 cubic meters would be valued at around $65 million Canadian dollars, based on the current market prices for LNG.
“Using this value and the estimated number of shipments of 88 per year, the LNG Canada facility would generate approximately $5.7 billion Canadian dollars in annual export revenue when operating at full capacity. However, it’s important to note that this is a rough estimate based on current market conditions, and actual revenues could be higher or lower depending on a variety of factors. . . .
“Note too that this estimate does not include Woodfibre LNG which will also begin production in 2025 adding perhaps an additional $700 million to $1.3 billion in LNG exports. An additional $6.7 billion in export revenue from LNG production by 2027 is plausible.”
Ksi Lisims LNG? Cut the red tape
BC’s Environmental Assessment Office (BCEAO) now is determining the detailed process for its evaluation of the Nisga’a Nation’s Ksi Lisims LNG project.
The Board of Trade proposes reduction of wait-times for permits and approvals by 20-30 per cent.
The BCEAO’s first process for evaluating the Haisla Nation’s Cedar LNG project took 306 days, from 14 January 2022 to 16 November 2022.
(It then took a further 117 days for two key B.C. ministers to render their green-light decision, which came on 13 March 2023.)
The Board of Trade’s call would reduce the BCEO’s 306 days of review to as little as 214 days, a saving of 92 days; call it three months..
The initial provincial and federal approval of the LNG Canada project at Kitimat took, in all, 897 days, or almost three years (from 21 May 2013 to 06 May 2016).
In contrast, it took U.S. authorities just over one year to OK the Sabine Pass LNG project in Louisiana.
The blog concluded with this: “Over to you, BCEAO, to cut some of the red tape.”
And the Canada West Foundation issued a report saying approvals processes for major resource projects in Canada continue to be slow and cumbersome under revamped legislation: http://ow.ly/BZtc50O8LTF
LNG Canada +80% complete, CGL 87%
Noting that it had received its last large prefabricated modules (picture above), LNG Canada reported that its construction was more than 80% complete over-all.
“We’re getting ready to commission, start up, and operate. As world events continue to demonstrate, a reliable supply of responsibly produced, lower-carbon energy can never be taken for granted. We’re proud to be part of the Canadian energy solution.”
Coastal GasLink reported that its construction was almost 87% complete.
“With more than 576 km of pipe installed, our crews are preparing for spring break up.” CGL said nearly 94% of all pipe has been welded, and some 44 million hours of work have been completed.
Meanwhile, Woodfibre LNG made news with its plan to be net zero by the time it is operational in 2027.
And it noted:
- “Facility will also be net zero during construction, by offsetting emissions with local, nature-based carbon credits that have First Nations partners.
- “First project in Canada to have an Indigenous government, Sḵwx̱wú7mesh Úxwumixw (Squamish Nation), as an environmental regulator.”
- LNG Canada’s update: http://ow.ly/TRNe50OhPiV
- Coastal GasLink update: http://ow.ly/ReL150OhPkh
- Woodfibre LNG’s net-zero strategy: http://ow.ly/xsXb50OhPmV
Impact Benefit Agreements
- Check out our latest Wayfinding Guide to IBAs, with key insights from First Nations, government and industry leaders. Read it here: http://ow.ly/y7Fc50OgaMx
Indigenous clean-energy news
- Solar project planned on Lower Nicola Indian Band land in BC: http://ow.ly/aIas50OkoRJ
- First wind turbines spin for Neqotkuk First Nation in NB: http://ow.ly/YbXb50OhPqN
- BC supports Indigenous clean-energy projects: http://ow.ly/2hwG50OhPoN
- Feds and Manitoba First Nation invest in geothermal project: http://ow.ly/CEj350OhPtj
- Nova Scotia OKs two wind-farm projects in which Sipekne’katik First Nation is a partner: http://ow.ly/Urj350OhPpq
- Hydro One hydro transmission project in Ontario offers First Nations an equity stake, and procurement opportunities: http://ow.ly/6pWn50OhPuM
- Ottawa’s new Electricity Advisory Council includes First Nations representatives: http://ow.ly/eBgB50OhPvt
- Ontario Indigenous group signs MOU to build plant to recycle lithium-ion battery waste: http://ow.ly/Fc7I50OhPwK
- Weighing nuclear power options for First Nations: http://ow.ly/o0uo50NMnnE
ALSO IN THE NEWS
How Haisla Nation’s Cedar LNG project is a new dawn for Indigenous Peoples: http://ow.ly/oCNc50OfYCv
- Canadian complacency could risk our LNG opportunity as BC LNG faces competition: http://ow.ly/6iJ950OkjUo
- Canada has a Duty of Care to export its LNG— Port Edward LNG’s Chris Hilliard: http://ow.ly/ISeE50OfV4s
- Canada deserves credit for greenhouse-gas reductions from its LNG exports: http://ow.ly/nUnz50Oklx1
- New Brunswick premier goes to Europe to pitch potential hydrogen, LNG and nuclear projects: http://ow.ly/YwLZ50OhLuC
- Indigenous involvement in major projects: 3 best practices: http://ow.ly/5tUf50Og9U9
- Nation2Nation’s ‘She Leads’ women’s gathering comes up May 25-26 at Smithers BC. The Alliance is a sponsor. Info/register: http://ow.ly/AFTx50NCaVX
- The Forward Summit 2023, May 17-18, Grey Eagle Resort & Casino near Calgary. Registration: http://ow.ly/Q8ZV50K7FYb (Note that there’s an Indigenous discount.)
- The Indigenous Partnerships Success Showcase 2023: June 1-2, Vancouver: http://ow.ly/IZC850LH58j
- National Coalition of Chiefs Energy and Natural Resource Summit, June 11-12, Priddis AB (near Calgary): http://ow.ly/s7EH50NEGEC
- The Global Energy Show, June 13-15, Calgary: http://ow.ly/UvTL50LjFlM
- The First Nations Power Authority holds its Indigenous Cleaner Energy Forum, June 26-27, Saskatoon: http://ow.ly/NYMx50NVA1A
- The LNG 2023 Conference, July 10-13, Vancouver Convention Centre. Info/register: http://ow.ly/VVUl50MjbwU
- The sixth annual national Indigenous Clean Energy Forum, July 28, Vancouver. Info/register: http://ow.ly/CvbA50NteNK
- Carbon Capture Canada, Sept. 12-14, Edmonton: http://ow.ly/3iBP50LRo0R
- Nation2Nation’s 7th annual forum in Terrace BC, October 17-19: https://nation2nation.ca
- The International Gas Research Conference, May 13-16. Our Karen Ogen is on the national organizing committee. Conference website: https://igrc2024.org/
(Posted here 14 May 2023)